Future Scenario Planning Do’s and Donts

Succeeding In Scenario Planning

Although it is important not to view scenarios as any kind of forecasting of the future, organizations that practice it do get better at spotting the driving forces that can change the industry, putting them a few steps ahead of those who don't see it coming. This is especially true of discontinuities. In many situations, the gaining of even a few months of extra lead-time to meet eventualities represents serious competitive advantage. Finally, it offers a significant contribution to transforming an organization into an alert, objective, focused distributor.
Scenario planning is based on the assumption that the end game vision and the strategic plan are flexible. Consequently, a robust flexible strategy that would perform well over different scenarios is essential. This is why it is important to identify specific action items for each scenario. These bullet pointed action items become the challenging factors to test the flexibility of the strategic plan.

a. Avoid Plots Which Follow the "Most Likely" Progression.
The idea behind scenario planning is to get beyond the standard forecasting done for typical strategic planning sessions. Therefore, it is imperative that participants "think outside the box." Wild scenarios can always be reined in after the original ideas are extracted from them, but mundane scenarios will always be mundane, and will not contribute to growth. Thinking outside the box in the simplest terms means that we should not start with today and work forward for our scenario. We need to look to the future and write the scenario as if we are already there.

b. Don't Allow "Probabilities" to be Assigned to Scenarios.
As soon as participants see probabilities assigned to their scenarios they will begin to think inside the box again. They will try to "win" by getting the highest score, which undoubtedly will be for the scenario closest to the "normal" progression. Defeat this by valuing all scenarios equally by not assigning values at all.

c. Be Creative with Scenario Names to Stimulate Imagination.
This entire concept is oriented to "outside the box" thinking. Therefore, every effort must be made to stimulate original and creative thought, both in the scenario creation process as well as the strategic planning process that follows it. Use of dramatic and creative names for scenarios will reinforce the creative thought process and add to the excitement.

d. Demand Ownership of the Scenarios.
Managers at every level MUST accept ownership of the scenario process and the scenarios that are generated by it. The final direction taken by the company may be far from the plots in the scenarios, but the final result will be crafted from the imagination and the findings in the scenarios.

e. Be Creative in Communicating Scenarios.
The scenarios created are the basis for the planning process. If they are dull and communicated poorly, the enthusiasm with which they were created will be lost to the strategic planning process. Relate the strategies in a creative fashion - as a TV news broadcast, a skit, or some other creative outlet.

Conclusion
Restructuring, cost cutting and operational efficiencies, the focus of the 80's and early 90's, have proven not to give lasting competitive differentiation. Companies today are turning back to strategic scenario planning to find their direction. Once again, it is imperative that they succeed at scenario planning. Scenario planning can be fun. Scenario planning encourages creativity and it will challenge managers to get beyond old paradigms. Use it as a platform to begin your strategic planning process. You may find it much easier to determine your "end game" once you've completed a day of scenario planning. Try it, you might like it. Besides, you have everything to gain and nothing to lose.

Anshumali Saxena www.soilindia.net